2023 Home Building Outlook

Dec. 14, 2022

By Rich Binsacca, Editorial Director, Pro Builder Media

Despite continuing shifts in housing market dynamics—namely, the effects of inflation and the increase in interest rates to help cool it, not to mention lingering pandemic-induced pressures on production—home builders remain generally optimistic about the year ahead.

See the complete 2023 Annual Report & Forecast.

Not only do an overwhelming percentage of the respondents to Pro Builder’s annual Housing Forecast Survey think they will sell more homes and generate more revenue, but nearly 70 percent rate the overall health of their companies today as "good" or "very good," and roughly half expect 2023 to be a "very good" or "excellent" year.

That optimism is especially impressive when you consider the potential barriers to growth and profitability, namely higher labor and materials costs, ongoing supply chain delays, concerns about the overall economy slipping into a recession, and—for the first time in a while—challenges getting buyers qualified for a mortgage loan.

Home builders will  weather those headwinds by focusing more on so-called “recession-proof” buyers, while also embracing new (and presumably more cost- and time-efficient) off-site construction methods that (ideally) alleviate a variety of pressures on production.

With that, 68 percent of respondents anticipate buying land next year, which is a healthy increase from their 2022 forecast and is supported by their anticipated (if slightly less bullish) uptick in sales in 2023. And, despite the “exodus to the exurbs” touted by many during the pandemic, most of those land deals will be in the suburbs and urban infill plots, an indicator (along with plans to build smaller homes) of higher densities and perhaps more affordable pricing.