According to Jim Haughey, RCD chief economist, Reed Construction Data reduced the construction spending forecast for 2011-13 because of negative developments in the last few weeks. The forecast for 2011 is for a 4.8% decline, previously a 4.2% decline. Expansion in 2012 has been cut to 4.8% from 10.5%. Expansion in 2013 is now expected to be 10.2%, down from 14.4%. The risk of a recession in the next 12 months has now risen to at least 25%.